NY Yankees Randy Johnson Wins Despite Poor Performance - Baseball HQ

Baseball HQ sent (via email) this report on the Yankees Randy Johnson:

Johnson wins despite mediocre start... Facing the Devil Rays on May 4, Randy Johnson (LHP, NYY) gave up five earned runs but still managed to get a win. Back in April, HQ analyst Andy Andres speculated that Johnson is experiencing some age-related decline, based on the DOM/DIS splits in his pitching logs. Let’s see if the BPI’s also tell the same story.

Year IP Ctl Dom Cmd hr/9 H% S% ERA xERA
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2003 114 2.1 9.9 4.6 1.3 36% 72% 4.26 2.84
2004 245 1.6 10.6 6.6 0.7 28% 74% 2.61 2.39
2005 225 1.9 8.4 4.5 1.3 29% 72% 3.80 3.05
2006 43 1.9 6.1 3.2 1.0 28% 58% 5.02 3.62

This is a mixed bag of good news and bad news. On the good side, Johnson’s 5.02 ERA can be justified as the result of a pitiful 58% strand rate. His 3.62 xERA gives a better picture of his true performance to date, and a mark by which to set future expectation. On the bad side, Johnson’s dominance (K/9)is in a state of steep 3-year decline, which is in turn sinking his command (K/BB). The current levels of 6.1 Dom and 3.2 Cmd are still within the range for desirable pitchers, so Johnson should still enjoy a successful season. However, it is not right to expect a sub-3.00 ERA at this stage, based on his xERA. Even so, the misleading 5.02 ERA makes Johnson an excellent buy-low candidate.